Caruana, Fabiano are the favourites based on current odds.
Nakamura, Hikaru (Away team) odds offer the highest possible win at 2.73 odds. If you bet €100 on Nakamura, Hikaru you can win €273.00.
Betting on Caruana, Fabiano (Home team) is the safest option with odds at 1.4. If you bet €100 you can potentially win €140.00.
Caruana, Fabiano vs Nakamura, Hikaru – Candidates Tournament Match Prediction
International | Candidates Tournament | Chess
Ahead of this Candidates Tournament fixture, our prediction model has analysed recent form, head-to-head data, and performance metrics to generate the following win probabilities for Caruana, Fabiano vs Nakamura, Hikaru.
Outcome: Caruana, Fabiano Win | Probability: 66.1
Outcome: Nakamura, Hikaru Win | Probability: 33.9
In this format there is no draw — one side will win.
Who Is Favoured between Caruana, Fabiano vs Nakamura, Hikaru?
Our model gives Caruana, Fabiano the clear edge in this Chess matchup, with a 66.1 probability of victory. Nakamura, Hikaru come in at 33.9 — a genuine chance, and one that reflects a competitive fixture even if the numbers favour their opponents.
With no draw possible in this format, the gap between these two sides is brought into sharper focus. Caruana, Fabiano's 66.1 rating represents a meaningful but not overwhelming advantage — this is not a foregone conclusion.
What's Driving the Prediction?
Prediction models for Candidates Tournament Chess fixtures weigh a range of factors including recent form across all competitions, home and away performance records, offensive and defensive output metrics, player and roster availability data, and historical patterns in this competition.
These inputs combine to produce the win probabilities shown above. Caruana, Fabiano's 66.1 reflects an overall stronger statistical profile heading into this matchup. However, with Nakamura, Hikaru at 33.9, the gap is narrow enough to make an upset entirely plausible.
Betting Angles to Consider
Based on the model output for Caruana, Fabiano vs Nakamura, Hikaru: Caruana, Fabiano to win is the percentage-backed selection at 66.1 and represents the straightforward model play. Nakamura, Hikaru at 33.9 offers potential value as the underdog, particularly if the odds available overstate the gap between the two sides.
Please bet responsibly. These probabilities are model-generated estimates, not guarantees. Never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Quick Match Summary
Match: Caruana, Fabiano vs Nakamura, Hikaru
Sport: Chess
Country: International
League: Candidates Tournament
Favourite: Caruana, Fabiano (66.1)
Underdog: Nakamura, Hikaru (33.9)
Disclaimer: Betting involves risk. Only bet what you can afford to lose. Odds are subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.